Just Someone Talking About Economic
Just Someone Talking About Economic
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So let’s start off and talk about the economy a little bit and obviously we’ve been on a good long run here a very long run and yet does that surprise you and what would be the signs that you would look for to see the things we’re winding down well I look at a lot of figures just in connection with our businesses.
I like to get numbers not so so I’m getting reports in weekly in some businesses. Uh that, but that doesn’t tell me what the economy’s gonna do six months from now or three months from now. It tells me what’s going on now with our businesses and it really doesn’t make any difference in what I do. Today, in terms of buying stocks are buying businesses, what those numbers tell me they’re interesting but they’re not guidance to me if we buy a business we’re gonna older forever. So we’re gonna have good or bad years in between years, may be a disastrous year something here and we care a lot about the price we do not care about the next 12 months.
Talking About Economic
I’ve been surprised by all kinds of things in the last ten years about the economy, I mean I don’t think there was any economists I’ve ever read that talked about negative interest rates for long periods of time. I mean if you go back and read Keynes or a you read Samuelson you read any of it they do not get into a negative rate environment, I think now there’s still 11 trillion that’s of government debt around the world that’s it a negative rate so we’ve never seen it before and we’ve never seen at least the conventional wisdom Otto this is same period of long and growing deficits while the economy is getting better extremely low interest rates and really very little inflation. so something difference happening but something difference happens all the time so and that’s one reason economic predictions just don’t enter into our decisions.
Charlie Munger my partner I in you know 54 years now we’ve never made a decision based on an economic prediction women we make business predictions about individual businesses will do overtime and we compare that to what we have to pay for but we have never said yes to something because we thought the economy was going to do well in the next year or two years and we’ve never said no to anything because we were right in the middle of a panic even if the price was right well I pay none in the sense of as a guideline to doing anything it’s entertainment, I mean you know it’s like going to a variety show or something like that but and I just don’t know of any economist that that actually is what business is successfully as successfully or done well in stocks.
Paul Samuelson deadness we know he was a big shareholder burger but it’s you know they make guesses and though there’s so many variables I mean in in the hard sciences you know you know that you know if an Apple falls from a tree that it isn’t gonna change over the centuries because of anything or political developments or 400 other variables that go in but when you get into economics there’s so many variables and and the truth is you’ve got to expect good times and bad times in business and if you if you were to buy an auto dealership and you’re you know wherever you live locally or Donald’s franchise or anything like that you wouldn’t try and time the purchase you try and make the right purchase at the right price and you want to be sure you got a good business but you wouldn’t settle it by it because growth this year’s gonna be 3% instead of 2.8 percent or something the sword Berkshire does it depends on a personal situation.
If you’re working in something where you’re living off your your your paycheck from week to week you want to have a little cash or how long then and you certainly don’t want to have a credit card that’s maxed out or anything like that but if you know if your house is paid off if you don’t have big living expenses you got a portfolio of of decent diversified businesses we need any cash yeah yeah I’ve got responsibilities you know we’ve got insurance claims we could have hurricanes that you know would happen all kinds of things we might have to pay up billions of dollars and I’ve got over a million people that own shares that are coming up run the place so we get through periods like that but if I were retired I had a say a million dollar portfolio stocks that was paying me 30,000 a year in dividends or something of the sort and my children were growing the house was paid off of everything.
I wouldn’t worry too much about having a lot of cash room you have a forty five billion dollar state how closely do you follow the company you know people are concerned they haven’t really introduced any new products well if you have to closely follow our company you shouldn’t own it yeah no I made it I mean if you if you buy a business did you buy a farm you know you go up and look you know every couple weeks to see how far the corn is up and you know you worry too much about whether somebody says this is gonna be a year of low prices because the exports are being affected or anything like that you know you buy a farm and you hold it for I got one farm that I bought in the 1980s and my son runs it but I’ve been there once you know I mean it it it doesn’t grow faster if I go and stare at it you know I can’t cheer for it you know and I know there’s gonna be some years when prices are gonna be good and some when the prices aren’t gonna be good.
I know those years when yields will be better than others but about the farm and if it just and I don’t care about economic predictions on or anything of the sort I would do care that over over the years it’s well tended to in terms of rotating crops and I hope yields get better which they generally have in fact that farm a hundred years ago what about wood produced 30 bushels maybe 35 bushels of corn per acre now on a good year you know it’d be 200 I mean we’ve really made progress in this country that’s one reason commodity prices and go back a couple hundred years they’ve moved so little is because we’ve just gotten better and better whether it’s cotton or whether it’s corn or so it beans are all kinds of things and you and I benefited from that well.
It’s a long-term investment and if you owned if you own the best auto dealership in town the best brand and headed something good running it wouldn’t drop by every day and say you know how many people have come in today or you know I think interest rates are going up a little maybe it’ll slow down our sales or they know you buy it knowing there’s 365 days a year and you’re gonna own it for 20 years so that’s seventy three hundred days and you know they’re gonna things are gonna be different from day to day and you’re dear you shouldn’t buy it up the day to day stuff that’s important you can see that between December 13th and 24th it looks like you guys bought back about two hundred and thirty three million dollars worth of berkshire which was right near that particular stock market bottom how did you know that well is going through your mind?
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